Conference board employment trends for March 2023
- Prior month 116.24 revised lower to 115.51
- Employment trends for April rises to 116.18 from a revised 115.51 last month
The Conference Board Employment Trends Index (ETI) rose to 116.18 in April, up from a revised 115.51 in March 2023. The ETI, a leading composite index for employment, suggests that job gains will likely continue, though at a slower pace in the coming months. The labor market remains strong, but some softening is visible across several indicators, including job openings, quits, layoffs, and compensation growth. The Conference Board anticipates a short and mild recession starting in 2023, with substantial weakening in job growth or monthly job losses occurring later in the year. This complex situation of labor shortages and recession risk poses challenges for employers, as they navigate workforce expansion, reduction, or maintenance.
Frank Steemers from the Conference Board said:
“The ETI ticked up in April and remains elevated, though below the peak it reached in March 2022. The Index signals job gains will likely continue, albeit somewhat slower, over the next few months. We continue to forecast a short and mild recession starting in 2023 although it may take until later in the year to see substantial weakening in job growth, or monthly job losses. For now, the labor market remains on strong footing with job growth continuing. However, some softening is visible across several labor indicators. Job openings and quits have declined, layoffs have ticked up, and compensation growth is softening. Still, the labor market remains resilient and tighter than before the pandemic, complicating the Federal Reserve
Federal Reserve
The Federal Reserve System, more commonly known as the Fed, represents the central banking system of the United States. Like other central banks globally, the Fed is responsible for monetary policy, in this case in the US.The Fed is one of the most watched and followed entities for forex traders, given its material impact on the US dollar. Founded initially in 1913, the Fed was created to perform a wide range of functions. This includes stabilizing and maintaining flexible monetary policy in the
The Federal Reserve System, more commonly known as the Fed, represents the central banking system of the United States. Like other central banks globally, the Fed is responsible for monetary policy, in this case in the US.The Fed is one of the most watched and followed entities for forex traders, given its material impact on the US dollar. Founded initially in 1913, the Fed was created to perform a wide range of functions. This includes stabilizing and maintaining flexible monetary policy in the
Read this Term’s efforts to slow inflation
Inflation
Inflation is defined as a quantitative measure of the rate in which the average price level of goods and services in an economy or country increases over a period of time. It is the rise in the general level of prices where a given currency effectively buys less than it did in prior periods.In terms of assessing the strength or currencies, and by extension foreign exchange, inflation or measures of it are extremely influential. Inflation stems from the overall creation of money. This money is m
Inflation is defined as a quantitative measure of the rate in which the average price level of goods and services in an economy or country increases over a period of time. It is the rise in the general level of prices where a given currency effectively buys less than it did in prior periods.In terms of assessing the strength or currencies, and by extension foreign exchange, inflation or measures of it are extremely influential. Inflation stems from the overall creation of money. This money is m
Read this Term. This may prompt the Fed to raise interest rates by an additional 25 basis points to decelerate job growth and wage gains.”
*** The Conference Board Employment Trends Index (ETI) is a leading composite index for employment that aggregates eight key labor market indicators. These indicators have proven to be accurate in their respective areas, and combining them into a composite index helps filter out noise to reveal underlying employment trends more clearly. When the ETI increases, it suggests that employment is likely to grow, and when it decreases, employment is likely to decline. Turning points in the index signal that a change in the trend of job gains or losses is about to occur in the coming months. The ETI helps businesses, policymakers, and economists understand the current state and future direction of the labor market.
link